Topic: North Korea (Superthread)

[Lone Wolf AT]

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20060704/korea_missile_060704/20060704?hub=TopStories

CTV.ca News Staff

North Korea has test-launched two missiles within an hour of each other -- both which have landed in the Sea of Japan about 600 km from the Japanese mainland, according to reports.

Japanese public broadcaster NHK said the first missile was launched at 3:32 a.m. local time Wednesday and crashed into the sea several minutes later.

Japanese government officials are trying to determine whether the missile was a long-range ballistic that had been readied for launch recently, or whether it was a different missile.

It had been believed that North Korea was preparing a test launch of its Taepodong 2 missile -- believed able to reach parts of the United States.

The report comes on the same day the U.S. military announced that an Air Force facility at Cheyenne Mountain, Colorado, has been put on heightened alert, amid reports that North Korea could be set to test-fire a long-range missile.

The U.S. has long warned North Korea against firing long-range missiles.

[Lone Wolf AT]

CNN reports that neither missile had long range potential.

[Taggart]

CNN just reported that they launched the long-range Taopedong-2 missile, however it reportedly failed in mid-air.

[Lone Wolf AT]

That makes 3.

[Trinity]

CNN just reported that they launched the long-range Taopedong-2 missile, however it reportedly failed in mid-air.

Nice.....

[Inspir]

Ahhh, CNN. The world's intelligence source 

[tomahawk6]

The failure of the second stage is good news,they dont have an ICBM capability yet. On the negative side they have plenty of Scud type missiles which would cause problems for the ROK and US forces.

[milnews.ca]

...and maybe Japan, too?

[Grilla]

I dunno, im just a sapper  , but this could ge pretty big pretty fast for Japan at least.

[Armymatters]

Latest reports are that at least 5 missiles were fired, up to at most 10.
http://www.cbc.ca/story/world/national/2006/07/04/korea-missile.html

This is seriously provacative in the region. North Korea has always been the wild card in the deck of international security and now things are turning serious.

Edit: CBC is reporting that 6 missiles were launched.

[Michael O'Leary]

North Korea preparing to launch more missiles: reports

http://www.cbc.ca/story/world/national/2006/07/05/north-korea.html

Last Updated Wed, 05 Jul 2006 23:26:32 EDT
CBC News

North Korea is reportedly preparing to launch three or four more missiles including another long-range Taepodong-2, despite international condemnation for test-firing a flurry of missiles into the Sea of Japan Tuesday and Wednesday.

The missiles are said to be either short-or medium-range, and are on launch pads and ready for firing, major South Korean newspapers reported Thursday.

NBC News reported that North Korea was also preparing to launch another long-range Taepodong-2 missile but the missile is not yet on the launch pad.

North Korea has test-fired at least seven missiles in 24 hours, sparking worldwide condemnation for breaking a moratorium in place since 1999.

The long-range Taepodong-2, believed to be able to reach continental North America, fell short of its target shortly after being launched Tuesday. The latest launch came several hours after a bout of sustained activity, during which five short-range models crashed into the Sea of Japan.

See link for remainder of story.

[Lone Wolf AT]

I wonder what would happen if N. Korea miscalculated and a missle landed on Japan proper.

[techie]

China and Russia, i dont think, would be able to make good arguments to take less action then what the majority of the current sec. council wants to do. While the majority of the sec council wants to impose sanctions(13/15) where only China and Russia want to make a presedential statement. Ill post a link to the new story i read that in when i find it in my history.


http://www.abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=2158359

[chaos75]

Again, along the same lines as the current Iranian situation, I don't see how any nation, including the UN can go around telling sovereign nations what kinds of technology they can develop or test, considering this technology is widely used and available in numerous other countries.  The US tests how many missile systems a year, the Russians tested several missiles this year, the US is developing new nukes to replace old ones, etc etc.  No one here myself included is a fan of DPRK and Iran, but what gives us the right to tell them what they can and cant do.  Every nation is entitled to an armed forces and a threat deterrent force, whether that be nuclear or conventional.  If they haven't realized yet that starving the North Koreans doesn't effect their actions, maybe a regime change is in order there as well (not an Iraqi kill tens of thousands in the process style one either).  The NK situation has become so cyclical its ridiculous. Let em test all the missiles they want, what they are firing and if any missiles are armed is know well in advance with plenty of time to eliminate the threat before launch.  All this is is limited brinkmanship from the Koreans, and more muscle flexing from the US to divert attention from Iraq/Afghanistan.  Let the cycle continue...

[GAP]

Again, along the same lines as the current Iranian situation, I don't see how any nation, including the UN can go around telling sovereign nations what kinds of technology they can develop or test, considering this technology is widely used and available in numerous other countries.  The US tests how many missile systems a year, the Russians tested several missiles this year, the US is developing new nukes to replace old ones, etc etc.  No one here myself included is a fan of DPRK and Iran, but what gives us the right to tell them what they can and cant do.  Every nation is entitled to an armed forces and a threat deterrent force, whether that be nuclear or conventional.  If they haven't realized yet that starving the North Koreans doesn't effect their actions, maybe a regime change is in order there as well (not an Iraqi kill tens of thousands in the process style one either).  The NK situation has become so cyclical its ridiculous. Let em test all the missiles they want, what they are firing and if any missiles are armed is know well in advance with plenty of time to eliminate the threat before launch.  All this is is limited brinkmanship from the Koreans, and more muscle flexing from the US to divert attention from Iraq/Afghanistan.  Let the cycle continue...

A lot of what you say rings true...that given, I think this is one of those situations that is coming full circle to bite us in the *ss.

Years ago, it was easier to ignore the DPRK than to deal with them. This is the natural progression of stuff that lies around and festers.

Most of it is DPRK attention getting stuff, and a LOT is the US and others DIRVERTING attention, but it will come to a head, either from within, or from outside.

[chaos75]

I agree...eventually it will be time to put up and shut up.  The NK regime will not last more than a decade due to starvation, population decline, little to no economy, and the eventual death of KJ.  One of three things will happen.

1.  KJ will be near death, his people will begin to riot over lack of necessities and poor living conditions and the government will have no choice but to launch some sort of last ditch attack against the South or Japan, to avoid total collapse and chaos.

2. KJ will die and his successor (presumably son number three according to latest news), will either attempt to carry on status quo and fail see point #1, or start some type of post-Mao China type integration into the global community (although that might require giving up nukes which may be near impossible for regime to do)

3. US/UN finally decides enough is enough, threat is too great and military action is taken to eliminate nuke facilities and government leadership.  This issue is extremely delicate due to NK close ties with China, who the US is definitely not ready to deal with.

The likely scenario would be number 2, with China being the key player in bringing NK into the international fold.  Process will be slow but I think in the end, possible 10 - 20 years we may see re-unification.

[GAP]

There is a definite possibility of a military coup.  Sons getting weaker, military, although purged periodically, has high status, which leads to wanting total control.

[Armymatters]

There is a definite possibility of a military coup.  Sons getting weaker, military, although purged periodically, has high status, which leads to wanting total control.

In North Korea, the military and any members of it get priority in terms of food stuffs, medicine and goods to ensure their loyalty.

Right now, my analysis:

Major tactical blunder. Before the launches, the North Koreans did some major sabre rattling about being able to 'nuke the USA into smithereens'. Now it has been shown that this capability to hit the continental USA is very iffy, with the launch failure of the only missile capable of reaching the USA. Everyone now knows that at most the North Koreans were bluffing in this game of poker.

[Lone Wolf AT]

The problem with playing poker is that when one of the players is Looney Tunes you don't know what to expect.

[CanadaPhil]

Ummmm..... Is "Taepodong" North Korean slang for "Kind of Penis"

Looks like they have a limp noodle at best.

[Michael Dorosh]

I agree...eventually it will be time to put up and shut up.  The NK regime will not last more than a decade due to starvation, population decline, little to no economy, and the eventual death of KJ.  One of three things will happen.

1.  KJ will be near death, his people will begin to riot over lack of necessities and poor living conditions and the government will have no choice but to launch some sort of last ditch attack against the South or Japan, to avoid total collapse and chaos.

2. KJ will die and his successor (presumably son number three according to latest news), will either attempt to carry on status quo and fail see point #1, or start some type of post-Mao China type integration into the global community (although that might require giving up nukes which may be near impossible for regime to do)

3. US/UN finally decides enough is enough, threat is too great and military action is taken to eliminate nuke facilities and government leadership.  This issue is extremely delicate due to NK close ties with China, who the US is definitely not ready to deal with.

The likely scenario would be number 2, with China being the key player in bringing NK into the international fold.  Process will be slow but I think in the end, possible 10 - 20 years we may see re-unification.

Scenario 4 - the Soviet Union scenario - all the old timers die of old age and slightly younger enlightened types look to the west for rapprochement on equitable terms.

Don't forget how I nailed Game 7 of the Cup finals.

[munky99999]

Think of it like this. Say Canada all of a sudden wanted to build nuclear weapons and test them. The UN and the USA will be concerned, like China is with NK, but not freaking out. The difference is, Canada will very unlikely use them to begin with; while NK is relatively more likely to use them. The USA/UN and etc. are hoping for continued peace. By urging NK not to press the issue, they are simply saying we don’t want to go to war with you. I am pretty confident to say that they will pretty much ignore and not strike back until the NK goes way too far. By the time the NK goes too far with the “brinkmanship” even China and the UN will be backing up the suppression of the nkoreans; which I know they know they can’t go too far.

As for GWBush trying to push the subject away from Iraq; I believe that recent news of declassified information basically proving the reason for going into Iraq is a pretty good evidence for it. One might argue that these 500 WMDs were worthless and not reason enough to go into Iraq and my response is that they “just recently declassified this not so important information” just perhaps they have a huge very potent amount of WMD information that is still classified. Sure this is basically less evidence then heresay and doesn’t prove anything. But, to the open mind it definitely keeps the option of Iraq still valid.

[Blackhorse7]

North Korea States Any Pressure From The US Will Be Seen as an Act of War

From CBC

"North Korea said Wednesday that any increase in pressure from the United States against the communist country would be viewed as an act of war.

North Korea's Foreign Ministry said in a statement that North Korea would respond with "physical measures" if the U.S. applies pressure on the regime for testing a nuclear weapon on Monday."

This does not sound good at all.  Any thoughts on this?  The first thing that popped into my mind was WWIII.  If China sides with North Korea, we in the west have a MAJOR problem.

[Technoviking]

This whole thing is a bit scary.  From a viewpoint from some guy on cbc last night (Can't remember his name, but he's dealt with NK quite often), they don't bluff.  I KNOW that the US would not back down from sanctions (NK is already sanctioned heavily), but if China were to up the ante, well, that's a different kettle of fish....

[MedTech32]

I think this is going to turn out be one of those situations like the Cuban Missile, where the decisions made can have drastic consequences.  Especially if someone pushes a button and a makes a city or two dissapear. Even if N.K. crosses the 40th paralell conventionally, the U.S. almost completely pulled out of South Korea, it could get a little dicey.

And that could be before S.K, and Japan start their own Nuc Programs.  The world has definatley gotten a wee bit more dangerous and complicated.

Armyguy99